| | bub | 
2007-03-25
08:32:18 | | |
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Very nicely done. Look forward to more videos. Tried to post re. the Stagflation video. It did not go through.
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| | Speculative Bubble |
2007-03-26
01:37:15 | | |
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Thanks Bub! I'll try to keep cranking them out. And sorry about your other comment not working - I fixed the bug - thanks for letting me know :)
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| | CA Renter |
2007-03-26
10:05:40 | | |
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You are very good at making the complex - simple. Very good presentation. I hope you are right about Y2K pricing. Sold in Sept 2006 - and sitting in cash at 5% awaiting the adjustment. It is encoraging to read the blogs, like yours, and see that many others also saw this coming. Seemed like common sense. If this really does play out as many think it will, it will be nice having other people to "bounce ideas off of" regarding when it's time to get back in. Timing a market is a scary and difficult thing. I sold at the right time - the question now is what will the signals to buy be?? Being able to cash flow a house as a rental with 20% down and a 30 year fixed ??
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| | Ivan Stacey |
2007-04-08
10:49:15 | | |
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Great videos (rollercoaster and housing bubble)! Thanks!
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| | Moosebump |
2007-04-11
17:24:45 | | |
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Am I missing something? According to Shiller's chart (below the roller coaster video), the housing price index went from 100 to 200 over a period of 116 years. That equates to a compound annual return of 0.6% which doesn't actually seem excessive and would be far below the increase in say the stock market. Of course companies generate growing earnings. So what is the potential underlying value of a house? Rental income (or equivalently rent saved by owning).
For the chart inflation has been stripped out so if you assume real rents determine the real value of a house, then Schiller's chart might suggest that real rents have risen 0.6% year. Does this seem reasonable? I'm sure real income has risen much faster than 0.6% so it seems reasonable that people might be able to pay increasing real rents (that would become a smaller part of their real income). Why would real rents be able to command any increase? How about scarcity? Yes new tracts of land are being developed for new housing every year but a large portion of the housing stock sits on land that is central to urban areas where people want to live and might pay higher real rents for over time (though still a smaller % of total income).
This chart, other than the dramatic catch up over the past 5 years, just doesn't do it for me. It just adds misinfomation to the reams of misinfomation we have to deal with on the housing issue as it is.
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| | Bartsells |
2008-02-02
20:18:14 | | |
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Bob,
Very well done. At the beginning of 2004 there were signs of the impending Real Estate Bubble or in your case “Balloon” letting out some air. And what I find interesting is that around that time moving into 2005 I recall playing with a few balloons in the office to demonstrate my view…. And here it is today Feb. 2008 that I come across your video of just that. Well done. It is exactly how I tried to explain it during a local access TV show my broker and I do in Somerville. Hope you do not mind it I sort of give it a try in real life.
Bart
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