Speculative Bubble Economy Blog

Federal Open Market Committee December 2007 Statement

Tue, 11 Dec 2007 00:00:00 +0000

Fed Funds Rate released today

Full article at federalreserve.gov

Federal Open Market Committee October 2007 Statement

Wed, 31 Oct 2007 00:00:00 +0000

Fed Funds Rate released today

Full article at federalreserve.gov

First baby boomer applied for Social Security benefits Monday

Tue, 16 Oct 2007 00:00:00 +0000

This is the start of an avalanche of applications from the 80 million post-World War II generation born from 1946 to 1964. This lady is the first of the baby boomers, born one second after midnight on Jan. 1, 1946. She will be eligible for benefits after she turns 62 on New Year's Day.

An estimated 10,000 people A DAY will become eligible for Social Security benefits over the next two decades

The Social Security trust fund, if left alone, is projected to go broke in 2041

Full article at chron.com

Federal Open Market Committee September 2007 Statement

Tue, 18 Sep 2007 00:00:00 +0000

Fed Funds Rate released today

Full article at federalreserve.gov

Federal Open Market Committee August 2007 Statement

Tue, 07 Aug 2007 00:00:00 +0000

Fed Funds Rate released today

Full article at federalreserve.gov

Global Gasoline Consumption

Wed, 11 Jul 2007 00:00:00 +0000

The United States consumes more Gas than 20 other countries combined...

From Economist.com

Big Mac Index

Fri, 06 Jul 2007 00:00:00 +0000

from the economist

Federal Open Market Committee June 2007 Statement

Thu, 28 Jun 2007 00:00:00 +0000

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.

Full article at federalreserve.gov

Federal Open Market Committee May 2007 Statement

Wed, 09 May 2007 00:00:00 +0000

Fed Funds Rate released today

Full article at federalreserve.gov

Federal Open Market Committee March 2007 Statement

Wed, 21 Mar 2007 00:00:00 +0000

The target for the federal funds rate is released today

Full article at federalreserve.gov

Bernanke: Fannie, Freddie threaten economy

Thu, 08 Mar 2007 00:00:00 +0000

The combined $1.4 trillion investment portfolios held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may imperil the broader economy

Large investment portfolios held by mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may imperil the broader economy. Investments by Fannie and Freddie should be anchored to a clear and well-defined public purpose -an obvious and worthy candidate is the promotion of affordable housing.

Fed officials have often argued the combined $1.4 trillion investment portfolios held by the two companies are so large and unwieldy they present a systemic risk to the broader economy and should be curtailed. "The size and the potentially rapid growth of GSE portfolios, combined with the lack of market discipline faced by GSEs, raise substantial systemic risk concerns."

Bernanke said that unlike fully private firms, the two GSEs face little or no market discipline from their debtholders because of a belief the U.S. government will back these institutions under almost any circumstances. Although the debt of the two companies is not explicitly guaranteed by the federal government, many investors believe that because of the companies' public mission, the United States would not allow either company to fail.

Full article at money.cnn.com

Greenspan sees shorter cycle

Thu, 08 Mar 2007 00:00:00 +0000

Alan Greenspan said there's a one-third probability of a U.S. recession this year. Greenspan's outlook contrasts with the prediction of his successor Ben Bernanke, who told Congress last week that the economy may strengthen this year

We are in the sixth year of a recovery; imbalances can emerge as a result, ten-year recoveries have been part of a much broader global phenomenon. The historically normal Business cycle is much shorter and is likely to be this time

The Fed expects the economy to grow between 2.5 percent and 3 percent this year, and 2.75 percent and 3 percent next year, according to forecasts presented to Congress last month

Private-sector economists and policymakers are calling for the expansion, which began in 2001, to continue

Full article at twincities.com

Humor: Principles of economics, translated

Sun, 04 Mar 2007 00:00:00 +0000

Consumer Confidence Index February 2007

Tue, 27 Feb 2007 00:00:00 +0000

Comes out today at 10am Eastern

Full article at conference-board.org

Federal Open Market Committee January 2007 Statement

Wed, 31 Jan 2007 00:00:00 +0000

The target for the federal funds rate is going to stay unchanged at 5-1/4 percent.

Recent indicators have suggested somewhat firmer economic growth, and some tentative signs of stabilization have appeared in the housing market

Overall, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months, and inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time.

However, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures.

The Committee judges that some inflation risks remain.

The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

Full article at federalreserve.gov

Geographically based Economic data

Tue, 30 Jan 2007 00:00:00 +0000

Regional equivalents of gross domestic product plotted on an animated globe. The data is from 1990 but still worth a look

Animated 3D map of the world by economic activity (Flash)

USA

Individual country data

Full article at gecon.yale.edu

Consumer Confidence Index January 2007

Tue, 30 Jan 2007 00:00:00 +0000

Was released today. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Improves Slightly, But Expectations Soften

"This month's slight increase in confidence was solely the result of an improvement in the Present Situation Index, fueled primarily by a more favorable job market," says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. "Looking ahead, however, consumers are not as optimistic as they were in December. All in all, the Index suggests a moderate improvement in the pace of growth in early 2007."

Consumers' overall assessment of current-day conditions was more upbeat than in December. Those claiming conditions are "good" increased to 28.1 percent from 27.4 percent. Those saying conditions are "bad," however, rose to 16.5 percent from 14.9 percent. Labor market conditions also improved from last month. Consumers saying jobs are "hard to get" declined to 19.7 percent from 21.3 percent. Those claiming jobs are "plentiful" increased to 29.9 percent from 27.6 percent in December.

Full article at conference-board.org

State of the Union 2007

Tue, 23 Jan 2007 00:00:00 +0000

The State of the Union Address was tonight, here is a link to the full transcript.

Full article at whitehouse.gov

FRB Beige Book January 2007

Thu, 18 Jan 2007 00:00:00 +0000

Most reports from the Federal Reserve District Banks indicated that economic activity expanded at a modest pace since the last report. Here is the Beige Book summarized into 8 bullet points:

Consumer Spending and Tourism modest increases in retail sales. Vehicle sales were sluggish - foreign car sales were stronger than domestic truck sales; however, a few reports indicated strength in SUV demand due to lower gas prices. Tourism spending was up

Services service sector was generally positive - growth in technical, legal and information services

Manufacturing Manufacturing activity continued to expand - weakness reported mainly for products supporting the residential construction industry.

Real Estate and Construction continued softening in housing markets - high inventories of new homes have generally led to a slowing in residential building. Commercial real estate markets continued to see strong activity

Banking and Finance Lending activity was mixed - commercial and industrial lending generally up - while residential mortgage origination and refinancing continued to weaken.

Agriculture and Natural Resources Agriculture was aided by weather conditions and high prices. Energy production and exploration remained at high levels, and the alternative energy sector increased. Mining output grew.

Labor Markets labor markets tightening - some businesses having difficulty finding qualified workers. Despite expanded hiring, moderate gains in wages; however, some experienced wage increases and have concerns about increases in the benefit portion of compensation

Prices Overall prices increased moderately. Prices for energy and a number of materials have eased, and competition has kept prices for final goods in check.

Full article at federalreserve.gov

US Leading Economic Indicators January 2007

Thu, 18 Jan 2007 00:00:00 +0000

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index increased 0.5 percent in November.

The leading index increased for the third consecutive month in November. From May to November, the leading index rose 0.2 percent (a 0.4 percent annual rate). Initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) and building permits made the largest negative contributions to the leading index in November. In addition, strengths and weaknesses remained roughly balanced among the leading indicators in recent months.

The coincident index increased again in November. This measure of current economic activity has been growing steadily, although its growth moderated somewhat in recent months. From May to November, the coincident index grew at a 1.1 percent rate (a 2.1 percent annual rate). In addition, the strengths among the coincident indicators have been very widespread in recent months. At the same time, real GDP growth slowed to a 2.2 percent (annual) rate in the third quarter, following a 5.6 percent gain in the first quarter and a 2.6 percent gain in the second quarter.

The leading index was fluctuating around a slightly downward short-term trend since January, and, despite three consecutive gains, it is still 0.6 percent below its most recent high reached at the beginning of the year. The decline in the growth rate of the leading index since the beginning of the year appears to have moderated in recent months, but the strength among the leading indicators has not been widespread. The recent behavior of the leading index so far still suggests that slow economic growth is likely to continue in the near term.

Full article at conference-board.org

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were real money supply*, vendor performance, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods* and stock prices. The negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor - were average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), building permits, interest rate spread, average weekly manufacturing hours and index of consumer expectations. The manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials* held steady in November.

The leading index now stands at 138.2 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.4 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading index increased 0.2 percent, with six out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals fifty percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four indicators that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were employees on nonagricultural payrolls, industrial production, manufacturing and trade sales* and personal income less transfer payments*.

The coincident index now stands at 124.0 (1996=100). This index increased 0.2 percent in October and increased 0.1 percent in September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident index increased 1.1 percent.

LAGGING INDICATORS. The lagging index stands at 124.9 (1996=100) in November, with five of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were commercial and industrial loans outstanding*, change in labor cost per unit of output*, average duration of unemployment (inverted), ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales* and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income*. The only negative contributor was the change in CPI for services. The average prime rate charged by banks* held steady in November. Based on revised data, the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in October and increased 0.2 percent in September.